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Academics See No Clear Exit for Johnson or Replacement PM_我的网站

A |     British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life but his opponents have few options for replacing him — so say two senior academics.,Calls for Johnson to go have reached fever pitch since Chris Pincher, the Conservative MP he appointed as deputy chief whip in February, was sacked for drunkenly groping two men at a posh private members' club in London.,This week it emerged that Johnson had been informed of earlier sexual assault claims against Pincher before he promoted him — leaving cabinet colleagues were embarrassed at having to defend the ever-changing official line.,Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre, told Sputnik nobody should take Johnson's political demise for granted.,"He survived so much in a way that few other politicians have ever managed to, particularly those in senior public office and prime minister," McAllister says. "He operates by a completely different set of rules and principles and ethics, which we would assume would be his undoing, but actually in reality he seems to have been able to ride the storm".,The academic points to Johnson's survival of the scandals around his advisor Dominic Cummings, 'Partygate', his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Pincher affair. But she conceded that the spate of ministerial resignations led by Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor of the exchequer were "hugely significant.","Two Cabinet members who sat in Cabinet yesterday morning had resigned without warning by the evening," the professor stresses "I think it's also fair to say that both of those individuals are thinking about their own potential bids to stand as the next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore timing is very much predicated on that.",McAllister says things have changed since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who resigned in 1990 after failing to win a leadership challenge by an overwhelming margin.,"[T]here was a much stronger Cabinet code, a ministerial code that was upheld broadly, or if it wasn't upheld, then there were consequences," she says "That's not the case now, and it seems very likely that Johnson will not resign of his own accord.","He still has a base of support, of course, even though that’s dwindling away now," she adds.,The academic also doubts that a general election would break the political deadlock.,"Whilst Labour are a few percentage points ahead, they clearly aren’t making sufficient headway to be confident of winning a majority," McAllister says. "The best they could hope for in the current polling would be a minority government and potentially having to seek coalition partners".,Those could include the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who would demand a repeat of the 2014 independence referendum as the price of their support. Ironically, independence for Scotland and its 59 parliamentary seats would shore up the Conservative majority in Westminster and make Labour nigh on unelectable.,"[Labour leader] Keir Starmer has already ruled out any deals with the SNP for obvious constitutional reasons, and therefore with Plaid Cymru in Wales," she points out, "So it seems unlikely that that route to power is open".,McAllister believes a new Tory leader would at least enjoy a "honeymoon period" bounce in the polls.,"And who knows, were Johnson to be defenestrated, it might be that a new leader might choose to capitalize on the honeymoon period and call an earlier election," she speculates.,Beleaguered BoJo Battles With Opposition at Weekly PM's Questions12:52 GMT,No 'Coup', But Then Who?,Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the books "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval" and "From Anger to Apathy: The British Experience" thinks Johnson has no hope of survival. But he does not see how the party can push the PM out if he refuses to jump.,He says Javid and Sunak's resignations are "serious blows" to Johnson, but they are only "symptoms of a more general crisis of leadership".,"Johnson has been involved in too many incidents which raise questions about his personal integrity," Garnett says, with ministers told to defend the PM against allegations that turned out to be true. "In effect, they have been asked to lie in public on his behalf. Their patience has finally snapped.",But the professor does not see the near simultaneous resignations as a "coup", stressing: "The most surprising thing is that ministers have tolerated Johnson for so long".,While Sunak was seen as the favorite to succeed Johnson just six months ago "he is being held at least partly responsible for the country's economic problems and his chances of becoming prime minister are now very remote," Garnett says. "Sajid Javid's chances are greater, but Conservative members (who make the final decision) seem more attracted to the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who has not resigned.",The academic believes MPs are worried that Johnson is now an "electoral liability" who could cost them their seats at the next general election. "The party has just lost two by-elections in crucial seats, and the main reason given by those who voted against them was Boris Johnson's leadership," he stresses.,But the problem of how to remove Johnson from office if he will not quit remains.,"Currently the party's rules make it impossible to hold a vote of confidence for another year," Garnett points out. "It is very likely that those rules will be changed within the next ten days". But he believes if a vote could be held now, "Johnson would certainly lose and be forced to resign".。    　　8月19日，“人形机器人第一股”宇树科技（688836.SH）在上海证券交易所科创板上市，成为“杭州六小龙”中第二家上市企业。截至当日收盘，宇树科技上涨460.34%，总市值达到3418亿元。
　　2016年，宇树科技种子轮估值仅为1333万元，截至上市当日，总市值达到3418亿元，估值呈现指数级翻倍。《中国经营报》记者注意到，宇树科技上市背后，北京、上海、深圳、杭州等地方国资也获得“超预期收益”。　　在多位参与宇树科技投资的地方国资人士看来，投资的初衷是长期深耕产业、陪伴企业成长，而非短期追逐收益。

B | 上市并不意味着投资结束，未来地方国资将继续围绕数据和场景发挥耐心资本效应，推动产业走向商业化、市场化。　　耐心资本兑现超预期收益　　8月19日，宇树科技成功在科创板上市。　　记者注意到，除了杭州本地国资曾参与宇树科技多轮融资外，京沪深等地国资也参与融资，实现超预期收益。　　招股书显示，北京机器人产业发展投资基金（以下简称“北京机器人基金”）持有宇树科技股份1392.8万股，占发行后总股本的3.44%，按照上市当日收盘价845元/股计算，持股市值近120亿元。其中，北京机器人基金由首程控股（00697.HK）担任基金管理人。

C | 自2024年起，北京机器人基金两度投资宇树科技，2024年投资1.5亿元，2025年6月再度增资3572万元。　　2022年，首程控股首次与宇树科技接触，首程控股资本市场部总经理康雨回忆：“当时宇树科技的市场关注度并不高，促使我们下定决心投资有三个方面：一是商业上的确定性。通过交叉验证可以看出，宇树科技的收入规模、产品具备可靠性和稳定性。二是团队的特质。早期宇树科技的融资环境并不好，倒逼团队边研发边经营，形成很强的经营纪律。三是基于第一性原理的判断。我们判断赛道的核心标准是产品能不能真正提升社会生产力、生产真实的经济价值。”　　在康雨看来，投资宇树科技不能看成一笔孤立的财务投资，而是要放在整体战略中。　　记者注意到，首程控股2021年涉足机器人赛道，2023 年其作为管理人参与设立百亿规模北京机器人产业发展投资基金。

D | 近年来，首程控股不仅重仓宇树科技，还投向星海图、银河通用、云深处等20多家机器人企业，其中80%的企业实现持股5%以上。　　此外，北京市海淀区国有资本运营有限公司（以下简称“海淀国资”）旗下的中关村科学城持有宇树科技338.86万股，占发行后总股本的0.84%，按上市当日收盘价计算，持股市值为28.63亿元。　　值得一提的是，据招股书及容诚会计师事务所出具的审计报告，中关村科学城 2024 年出资 3923.53 万元，叠加北京机器人基金的投入，按照上市当日收盘价静态测算，合计持股市值 146.33 亿元，北京国资相关主体账面回报超 64 倍（该数值仅为上市首日账面浮盈，下同）。

E | 　　2022年，上海国际集团有限公司（以下简称“上海国际集团”）旗下的上海科创中心股权投资基金管理有限公司管理的上海科创中心贰号私募投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“上海科创”）以1500万元对价受让老股入局。宇树科技招股书显示，上海科创持股136.37万股，占发行后总股本的0.34%。按照上市当日收盘价计算，对应股票市值11.52亿元，账面回报超过75倍。　　对于此次宇树科技上市，上海国际集团方面公开表示，未来将继续前瞻布局未来产业和前沿科创赛道。　　深圳市创新投资集团有限公司（以下简称“深创投集团”）也是较早布局宇树科技的地方国资之一。招股书显示，深创投集团及其子公司创新资本，分别持有宇树科技股份107.96万股、136.57万股，由深创投集团管理的基金新疆深创投、江苏疌泉分别持有宇树科技股份469.15万股、216.01万股。

F | 上述主体合计持有929.69万股，占发行后总股本的2.30%。按上市当日收盘价测算，对应股票市值约78.56亿元。　　容诚会计师事务所公布的审计报告显示，自宇树科技2022年第二次增资起，深创投集团及相关主体累计投资9181.87万元。若按上市当日收盘价静态测算，账面回报超84倍。　　“陪伴”新阶段　　如果将目光回顾更远，早在2018年，杭州地方国资以“3天尽调、7天放款”的速度，为宇树科技提供了2000万元类信用担保债权，让宇树科技在创业初期走出了资金困境。　　从B2轮到C+轮，杭州科创基金、杭州创新基金通过市场化子基金连续跟投4轮，专注扮演“耐心资本”角色。　　随着进入上市阶段，宇树科技与杭州地方国资“合作”进入新阶段。

G | 　　2026年5月，国家人工智能应用中试基地（具身智能）在杭州揭牌，该基地系全国唯一面向具身智能领域的国家级中试基地。　　公开资料显示，中试基地的运营主体为杭州具身智能中试基地科技有限公司。该公司由杭州高新科创集团有限公司、杭州市数据集团有限公司、宇树科技、传化智联（002010.SZ）共同持股。

H | 其中，杭州市区两级国资保证公共属性，宇树科技提供本体，传化智联提供场景验证。　　在多位地方国资人士看来，随着地方国资与宇树科技形成联动，可持续吸引人工智能、高端制造领域的企业和人才落地杭州，进一步巩固杭州千亿级人工智能产业集群的发展优势。　　杭州之外，2026年3月26日，宇树科技与重庆大渡口区签约，共建“具身智能机器人西部创新运营中心”。而在更早之前，重庆国资也参与了宇树科技的“成长”。

I | 　　根据宇树科技招股书：南京经纬创壹号投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“经纬创壹号”）、金石成长股权投资（杭州）合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“金石成长”）分别持有宇树科技1550.63万股和1511.42万股，分别占宇树科技发行前总股本的4.26%和4.15%。　　股权穿透看，重庆地方国资正通过上述两家有限合伙企业经纬创壹号和金石成长间接持有宇树科技股份。　　重庆高速公路集团有限公司旗下的重庆高速公路投资控股有限公司，持有重庆成渝共兴私募股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）49.79%的股权，成渝共兴基金持有金石成长1%的股权，对应持有宇树科技股份数量约为15万股；重庆江北嘴中央商务区投资集团有限公司通过旗下的重庆两江新区金智私募股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）持有经纬创壹号0.4699%的份额，对应宇树科技持股数量为7.29万股。　　此外，成都高投集团有限公司旗下的成都高新策源投资集团有限公司、成都产业投资集团有限公司旗下成都科技创新投资集团有限公司等成都本土国资创投平台，均通过基金渠道间接参投宇树科技。

J | 　　方达咨询研究院方面认为，不到一个月，长鑫科技（688825.SH）、宇树科技接连上市，虽然两者分属不同产业、不同地域，但是两者折射出一定共性，即地方国资正在系统性进入硬科技领域，并且摒弃过往简单的财务投资，从项目的早期进入，以“耐心资本”的身份一直陪伴到成长期，支持产业进入商业化、市场化阶段。（文章来源：中国经营网）。

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